Are managed retreat programs successful and just? A global mapping of success typologies, justice dimensions, and trade-offs

As managed retreat programs expand across the globe, there is an urgent need to assess whether these are reducing exposure climatic hazards, enhancing adaptive capacity, and improving living conditions of communities in a just equitable manner or they exacerbating existing risks vulnerabilities? Strictly speaking, successful? Using expansive intersectional justice approach examine 138 post-resettlement case studies published between 2000 2021 Global North South, we identified five typologies success – techno-managerial, eco-restorative, compensatory, reformative, transformative their trade-offs synergies. Our meta-analysis incorporated variety metrics: relocation types, funding, decision making, socio-economic class, land use change, livelihood options, social impacts. We found 26% cases failed, 43% were successful, 30% on-going therefore was undetermined. The techno-managerial cases, while successful limited terms relocating residents, paid little attention equity justice. eco-restorative compensatory reduced hazard but revealed synergies tensions associated with social, ecological, intergenerational reformative improved community wellbeing, rootedness, access livelihoods incorporating diverse concerns different degrees. By intersecting multiple dimensions justice, this study advances novel planning analytical tool for assessing potential failure current future programs.